Toms

Currently there are 8 running GW's.

Cantona
Clough
Fernandez
Fowler
Keane
Lineker
Saunders
Shearer

Toms is due to start January 12th and is advertised as the first 'pro' GW in which you can start from day one with the previous skills you acquired in your current GW.

So far GW's can hold up to 1000 managers and I have been wondering how full Toms will be when it launches and how many 'new' managers will join it. By new I mean never played in beta or have not moved from a current GW.

If Toms is full prior to the launch then your current GW is in trouble. There are 8 current GW's so if the numbers that join Toms is spread equally between them all (which they won't be) that is
125 managers removed from each of those GW's.

Looking at the numbers in Saunders currently in my opinion there is no way it can take a 125 hit of managers leaving in January and still be enjoyable for me to be in. With February being the 3 month subscribers decision time aswell it means from those 125 leaving the numbers can only dwindle more.

The reason I say this is because for those 125 that will jump into Toms they are most likely some of the more active managers in your GW. They aren't the people in your GW who don't play at all anymore who you never see anyway. Everytime I log into Saunders at my peak times it has mainly the same faces playing and is getting less every week.

So you and indeed me have a decision to make before January 12th. Looking at the numbers in your GW now can you afford not to join Toms if you want to be in an active GW? It will take a hit in numbers come the Toms launch and then again in February.

So in a way the Toms launch is taking away managers from your current GW. The only people (i sincerely hope) that will join it are those who have skills already, and who are those people? You and your fellow managers in your current GW. If there are a lot of new managers in Toms then it won't be long until they become frustrated that others have a massive advantage in skills. It is their fault really as Toms is advertised as a pro world but some will find their way into it and when they do (just like the non beta testers in my GW) they will soon be leaving aswell.

Tom Tom GO?

I've been having naughty thoughts recently whether or not it is worth staying in my current Saunders game world or jumping into Toms, the first game world to be classed as 'PRO'. I always had my doubts about these first few game worlds in terms of their longevity, but I didn't think I would be thinking of changing even before my first 3 month subscription has ended.



In one of my earlier blog entries I stated that Saunders would be my only game world and that the thought of moving and starting again from scratch would not appeal to me and that is still true in a way. But my thinking behind that at the time was that Saunders would last at least 6 months, so jumping into a new game world after 3 months would seem silly if Saunders was doing ok at that point. Unfortunately my view of Saunders in 3 months time has changed quite a bit recently, mainly due to the decrease in numbers at the time I log in the most.



I am a firm believer in sticking it out with the game world you chose from the start, it isn't going to be any different by jumping from game world to game world. But how loyal should I be? Should I stick with it till I am the last man in the game world when everyone else is leaving for pastures new even though I too saw the danger signs in the previous months? Do I kid myself that the numbers may suddenly increase and that it will become as enjoyable as it was when it was very active? I really believe that waiting until things get a bit desolate to think about doing something about inactivity is far too late. And that's why, ultimately, these first game worlds just won't last very long. And then there is the appeal of joining a game world were you can keep all your skills. A rather silly move I believe, but a very attractive option for a current manager to venture into. Will Toms have a large number of first time users in it from the start? I hope not, because the noise being made in most current game worlds from non beta testers regarding the advantage of beta testers will be tenfold. Not only have they been beta testers but they also could have any number of 5 star skills which could seriously increase the likelihood of them making a dominant start to a new game world. An advantage is still an advantage no matter how small people think it is. Maybe Toms is a way of pooling the hardcore users from Saunders and Clough etc when they are nearing depletion? Pooling the most active users into an almost advertised long term game world. Here's hoping that Ov Collyer and the boys are already 5 steps ahead of everyone else's concerns, which I'm sure they are.



I have however had a change of heart regarding sticking with the game long term. I don't really play any other kind of games any more, nothing really holds my interest like this game has done throughout beta and indeed in Saunders, but SI/SEGA are clearly onto a winner with this game. The 1.1 changes mean that the game is a lot less linear, and from that point can only gain in depth and structure which in turn will lead to a long lasting game. My early, rather selfish views about paying to play in these inaugural 'doomed' game worlds have changed into the view that I have in some way supported them to hopefully help build a better and more diverse game which I can play long term.

Beginning of Season 2 Numbers

These are the numbers, checked on December 20th.



Game World Managers 973 (excluding Super Admin)


Last signed in

Never ..... 14

Nearly 2 months ago...... 60

Just over a month ago ...... 63

Nearly 5 weeks ago ....... 1

Just over 4 weeks ago ....... 12

Nearly 4 weeks ago .......... 32

Just over 3 weeks ago ..... 14

Nearly 3 weeks ago ....... 25

Just over 2 weeks ago ........ 11

Just 2 weeks ago ....... 51

Just over a week ago ........ 14

Less than 7 days ago ........ 684


So that's 283 managers that have not signed into Saunders for 2 weeks or more. I have no way of knowing what proportion of these numbers are GW hoppers or have just stopped playing the game.

If you take away the 283 from the total managers in the GW it leaves us with 690 managers, pretty much the total of managers that have signed in less than 7 days ago which is encouraging.


Activity Times Numbers (weekdays)

Morning (8am - 11am) ....... 55 - 70

Afternoon (12pm - 3pm) ........ 90 - 110

Peak time (7pm - 11pm) ........ 130 - 160



These are the numbers for the times I tend to log in. They have dropped considerably since the game world launch. People say that 160 managers is a good amount but it's the rate at which the numbers are decreasing which worries me. Yes, 690 have logged into the game world in the last 7 days but I am only seeing 160 of them when I log in. Any loss on the 'signed in less than 7 days ago' numbers means a loss in the numbers that I see when I log in the most. So if 690 turns into 550 I can expect the peak time to drop close to the 100 mark.


Sign ups since the 27th November



27th-6th Dec ......... 0

7th Dec ......... 4

9th Dec ....... 1

12th Dec .... 1

13 Dec .........1

15th Dec .......1

17 th Dec .........1

So 9 managers have signed up to Saunders from 27th November to December 20th. I would imagine that a good proportion of those had swapped from another game world.



The 1.1 update in 2009 looks good but it will not help new users join an established GW like Saunders. Joining a new GW with the 1.1 in place is clearly a better option. Everyone starts equal and there is more options to choose from and paths to go down. With Saunders just over a month old now it has become a very strange place indeed. I thought the majority of people who signed up in soft launch would be old or current FM players and would have some idea of how things work but that clearly isn't the case.


I really hope that FML does not slowly become FM09. In one of the press videos about FML it was said that 'you' are the coach and that 'you' are the scout, in fact you are all the staff. So why introduce things were you don't have to be any of those things? FM09 spoon feeds you information so that you can just sit back and click continue. FML (currently) is 10x the MANAGEMENT game that FM09 is. That said, a hardcore GW would be too hardcore for me, but the current crop of players in these early GW's means they will not last any longer than 4 months.

Random Offers + Judging Potential

Ever had a random private bid for one of your youth players? If you have, one of the things you need to check is the bidding managers skills. The first few people in my game world have started to get the Judging Potential skill and it is worth noting when a manager randomly bids for a youth player you have.

If the bidding manager has the judging potential skill then you now know why he has bid on one of your young players. Don't let them take them away from you without first checking their skills. They may offer you a big amount for your young player but stick to your guns. You now know that the player in your possession that he is after is obviously going to be good in the future (according to his JP skill). Use this to your advantage. If you are willing to sell make sure you get a very good amount for him.

Without ever seeing an official view on the judging potential skill I don't want to go into details about it here because I may be very wrong in the way I interpreted it. As a general rule though I wouldn't rely on the judging potential skill under 4 stars. The margin of error is too great for it to be reliable.

So as a rule of thumb you should always check the bidding managers skills. They are, in a way, giving you information as to the potential of your players depending on how high their JP skill is. That information is only worth taking note of with JP 4 star upwards however.

Help! the Aged (+Target Man)

I have made a silly error! My hunt for a newgen target man went well until I realized the mistake I had made. The start of season 2 in my game world is December 12th and I have been informed that on this date all my players will age by 1 year. The target man I have bought this morning is currently 16 which is where I have gone wrong. He will be 17 on the 12th and that is a big mistake on my behalf. I will only have had him for 2 days and he will have aged by 1 year already. In that year (28 days) from 16-17 he could have had quite a lot development but now if he does age that time will have been wasted. Luckily the other youth players I have already bought are 15.

Jan Fredrik (Progeria) Andersen is my main hope to become a decent target man.



His stats don't really scream great potential but he was the best I could find. He is 6' 2" which was my minimum and is quite strong already. He may not cut it but I will keep posting his progress here every now and again.

Money to be made

I keep stressing the importance of having and developing youth players in this game and here is why.





This player I bought 2 days after I signed up for Saunders. He cost me £6800 to buy and was on £1701 daily wages. I loaned him out straight away to my friend who has good coaching skills where he played in mainly under21 competitions but also some under19 and under17 as well. He is a DL naturally but his stats would suggest he is more suited to playing DC. His stats were quite high in the key areas for his position already and I had great hopes for him developing further.

After his initial 21 day loan period was up his stats had improved in all the key areas, he still hadn't reached 17 and he already had the stats of a great DC who could only get better,

Tackling 17 (started at 16)
Jumping 16
Heading 15 (started at 14)
Strength 14 (started at 8)
Influence 16
Bravery 17
Pace 9 (started at 6)
Acceleration 9 (started at 6)
Marking 10 (started at 8)

He went out on loan again to keep him improving but I knew that with the end of season 1 arriving I could get a good deal for him to help boost my first team. I got £800,000 for him and the all important 10% sell on fee as well. He was still 16 when I sold him.

Why sell him? I definitely had a class act on my hands here and with my friends coaching skills going up rapidly his stats would have hit silly levels before he turned 21 and could have easily sold him for millions at that point. Money is hard to come by these days in Saunders especially if you have a competitive senior team with players who have high wages. My plan is, at the end of every season (when everybody needs cash or are looking for players) I will sell the most promising and attractive (stats) youth players I have. We are now in season 2 and I have already started buying my next batch of 15/16 year olds ready for developing. When season 2 starts my first batch will be 17 (the ones I have kept) so I need to start the whole process again.

THE SELL ON!

It is very important that you add a sell on clause when selling youth players. Because they are so young not many people are going to pay big bucks for them (over a million). If someone has paid a decent amount for your player at 16 they have a good chance of being worth a fortune when they get older and that is where you get more money.

I sold him for £800,000 + 10% sell on

If the buyer then sells him for £2,000,000 in the future I stand to make £120,000. That is nothing to be sniffed at with the upcoming financial restraints.

By doing this every season I do not have to sell any of my senior team to make some cash for myself. Obviously not all the youth players you buy will be of the same quality and you have to know when to release players who just don't cut it. I buy 2-3 players in each position roughly. After watching them and looking at their stats and performances for 1 week, I will lose 1 of them in each position. That leaves me with 2 players in each position to develop.

So in short I can sit back every season and concentrate on my senior team, come the end of the season I have options available to me other than having to sell my senior players in order to get some new faces in.

Someone has to develop the youth players and it may as well be you. I want to be the guy selling/keeping quality youth rather than the guy buying them.

'Target Man'

Over the last few days I have been keeping my eye out for an under 17 regen player who has all the credentials of a decent target man, Strength, Jumping and Heading etc.



I also only looked for players who are 6' 2" as a minimum and that meant I had to wait a few days before spotting anyone who could fit the bill. Yesterday I bid on 2 or 3 so come tomorrow I should have at least 1 at my club, hopefully 2.

I will post the player/s I end up with here and talk about their progress in the future.

To Be Continued.........